Donald Trump 's victory in the November presidential elections in the USA has undoubtedly caused a reshuffle in the world chessboard , especially with regard to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Despite the fact that he has not yet assumed his presidential duties, all the movements of the forces involved seem to take seriously Trump's aspirations for the Middle East and the achievement of a ceasefire in Lebanon.
A truce which, by today's standards, is particularly fragile , as already on the second day of its implementation, both sides accuse each other of violating the agreement. Israel says it opened fire on "suspects" who arrived in the southern area it has declared off-limits, while Hezbollah says Israel attacked people returning home.
After all, during the announcement of the cease-fire agreement, a US official told US media that Trump's transition team has been briefed on the cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, adding that the team views it positively.
Trump's role in achieving a ceasefire in Lebanon
United States President Joe Biden and his aides are taking much of the credit for achieving the truce between Israel and Hezbollah, which took effect Tuesday night after months of relentless efforts by the president's special envoy , Amos Hockstein , and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken , who were prodding and pressuring both Lebanon and the Israel.
French President Emmanuel Macron also attributed some of the success to himself, saying the truce was "the culmination of many months of efforts with the Israeli and Lebanese authorities, in close cooperation with the United States."
But a critical factor influencing the sudden deal is undoubtedly Donald Trump, according to Politico. For better or worse, depending on one's perspective, Trump is already a focal point for all sides involved in the wars in the Middle East and Europe as they try to guess what he might want once he returns to the White House, and they seek to secure his favor in advance.
The case of the ceasefire in Lebanon is typical, where the candidates for the top positions in the Trump administration did not hesitate to mention his effect in achieving the ceasefire. "Everybody is sitting at the table because of President Trump," Florida Rep. Mike Walz, who has been tapped by Trump to be national security adviser, said on the social network X on Tuesday, shortly before the Israeli government announced the truce.
“His resounding victory sent a clear message to the rest of the world that chaos will not be tolerated. I'm glad to see concrete steps toward de-escalation in the Middle East," Walz added. And the reason he's boasting seems to be more than just arrogance. Trump's election victory seems indeed to have influenced various "minds" to lead to the achievement of the truce.
For example, in the case of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu , he didn't have to guess what Trump wanted for Lebanon. The president-elect and his allies had diligently reached out to Arab-Americans during his campaign — especially in the swing state of Michigan, where Trump promoted the idea that he could bring peace and "stop the wars."
Lebanese-American businessman Mashad Boulos , father-in-law of Trump's daughter Tiffany, was also a key emissary, tapping into the frustration of Arab-Americans angry with the current administration's policies on Gaza and the war in Lebanon. If Trump wins the election, he will "act immediately to end the war in Lebanon and not wait until his inauguration in January," he told Al-Arabiya, a Saudi-funded media outlet.
And apparently, Trump was not detained. As Politico reported, days after the U.S. election, it was clear that despite the president-elect's aggressive strategic choices in who would lead his national security and foreign policy teams, Netanyahu would not have absolute power. freedom in his quest to reshape the Middle East.
"Trump expects a ceasefire on Lebanon soon — even before his inauguration ," said an Israeli official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to speak freely on the matter.
That request was conveyed to Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer when he met with Trump at the Mar-a-Lago resort on Nov. 11 — the day before he sat down with Blinken to discuss truce options.
The factors that will determine the duration of the truce
The question now is whether the truce will last. There are many things that could go wrong – and this is mainly because Hezbollah has not been directly involved in the negotiations , leaving its political ally, the Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, Nabih Berri, to act on its behalf.
According to the agreement, the Israeli army will gradually withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon , while Hezbollah will move north of the Litani River , as foreseen by the UN resolution that ended the 2006 war. Lebanon will strengthen the area south of river, deploying an additional 10,000 troops throughout the 60-day transition period.
At the same time, there are rumors that Hezbollah has also agreed not to smuggle weapons from Syria to Lebanon to fill the gaps left by Israeli airstrikes in recent weeks. Monitoring of the truce has been undertaken by the American army , with the support of the French.
For his part, Biden has said he hopes this truce will turn into a permanent cessation of hostilities, but according to Netanyahu, its duration will depend on what happens in Lebanon. "With the full understanding of the United States, we maintain full military freedom of action - if Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to arm itself, we will attack," he said in a televised address on Tuesday.
In such a case, it is not clear whether Israel will wait for American and French mediators to determine whether there has been a violation and whether it warrants action. According to Lebanese officials who briefed Politico on the background, Israel's right to retaliate for any violations is not included in the agreement. The Lebanese were unwilling to include Israel's freedom of action in the armistice agreement on the grounds that it would violate Lebanon's sovereignty.
The next few days could prove particularly risky, with Lebanese Shiites rushing back to their villages in the south – urged by Berry to do so despite official orders from the Israeli and Lebanese armies to wait until the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces. On Wednesday, for example, Israeli soldiers fired on returning people they suspected of being members of Hezbollah in the southern Lebanese village of Mays al-Jabal after Israel's defense minister ordered "vigorous action" to prevent the return of members of the militia.
But even if the ceasefire holds for the next few days, there are other big risks.
Unsurprisingly, Netanyahu faced fierce opposition to approving the deal from his cabinet , with the far-right calling the deal a "grave mistake" that squanders a "historic opportunity" to wipe out Hezbollah. This means that the Israeli leader will likely face the wrath of far-right politicians in his government if he hesitates to react to even minor violations by Hezbollah, which in turn could prompt a swift backlash and escalation on both sides. In a statement from Hezbollah's operations center, the group did not directly refer to the deal but said its fighters would monitor the withdrawal of Israeli troops "with their hands on the trigger."
Public opinion in Israel is split on the truce, according to polls . In essence, it is a far cry from Netanyahu's stated goal of military action in Lebanon: the complete annihilation of Hezbollah in the same way he is targeting Hamas in Gaza. However, the Israeli leader insisted he was not letting the Shiite militant group off the hook, saying “Hezbollah is not the same anymore. It's gone back decades." However, the deal does not include the demobilization of Hezbollah, which has the ability to regroup militarily and continue fighting another day with the thousands of long- and short-range weapons – missiles, drones and rockets – it likely possesses.
Instead, the truce will only lead to the partial implementation of UN Resolution 1701 of 2006 which means the absence of Hezbollah south of Litani, no units, missiles and tunnels, but without the requirement that all Lebanese groups, including Hezbollah, demobilize.
But why should this time be different? The Lebanese Army (LAF) is no match for the Lebanese Shia militia, even in its current weakened state, and has failed to force Hezbollah to retreat at Litani in the past. In fact, more Shiites have entered the Lebanese Army since 2006.
More immediately, much depends on how Hezbollah leaders in Tehran proceed . It appears that the Iranian capital does not wish to irritate Trump – the country is in no position to wage a proxy war against Israel while Trump pressures Iran economically. Thus, Iran has begun to open the door to talks with Washington about reviving negotiations on its nuclear program.
The truce also has the support of Tehran – at least for now. On Wednesday, they welcomed what they described as the end of Israel's "attack" on Lebanon, and Ali Larijani, an adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, said the country supported the ceasefire in videos released earlier this week. However, there was also a warning, as he stressed that Hezbollah has not yet used "its most important equipment" and if it does in the future, "the situation could change completely."
Here, Larijani was speaking in the context of Iran's response to Israeli airstrikes on October 26 on Iranian military targets – in retaliation for an earlier Iranian missile attack on Israel. "Military officials are considering various options for such a response," he added.
How Iran reacts will undoubtedly determine whether this truce will last.
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