Extreme Warning: Is This Crypto Cycle Over?

We've just seen the biggest liquidation event that's actually ever occurred in crypto's history. This is even bigger than the COVID crash in terms of the number of liquidations across the board, with mostly, of course, the long traders, but believe it or not, even some short traders getting taken out off of some of those bounces. It's absolute pandemonium in the markets. We're going to discuss what this means for you, where things are most likely to go next: Is it all over for crypto in this cycle, or is there a chance of recovery? Smash the like button. Let's get straight into the show content. You can see over here the altcoins absolutely rinsed. These are top 100 coins, just by the way, still down double digits. Some coins down 50%, some coins down 70%. And actually, if you were there in the thick of things, which occurred a couple of hours ago, you saw prices come down between 70% and even 99% on certain altcoins. You heard that right, 99% down on altcoins. So, what exactly happened over here? Well, it all started off with Trump putting out a Truth Social post and basically saying they're imposing 100% tariffs on China. The trade wars, I guess, are back; they continue. That started to create a bit of a shaky market. The stock market began to pull back, and there's speculation that some big market makers like Wintermute have potentially gone down. We'll see what happens when all the dust settles and what sort of funds have blown up, but definite damage has been done. APIs basically went haywire on certain exchanges. Stop losses never got triggered, and there was just mass liquidations across the board. In fact, if you go onto the Whale Trades website and you just scroll down to the bottom over here: $19.31 billion in liquidations. For anyone that's new here, just to give you some perspective on that, a large liquidation event is typically in the region of about two to three billion. So, when you're talking about just shy of $20 billion worth of liquidations, these are absolutely massive, enormous numbers over there. You can see over here the sentiment tracker now officially in panic, dropping down to 27%. We're not in capitulation yet, but we're in a panic environment. So, will there be a recovery? Will there be a bounce? You can see the traders over here in Whale Room still absolutely milking it, unbelievable, scalping all these little trades over here. We have a lot to look at. We can see the skew over here is negative 5%. We saw the stock market dropping as well, triggering our stop loss. Remember, we put the stop loss over here on the yellow line, just simply tracking those beautiful higher lows. That high low has now officially been taken out. So, I think that next week is going to be incredibly interesting for the market. We need to see how it reacts off of this. I know the stock market's closed, but just drawing it out over here, we'll see if the stock market can get back above that breakdown level. If it can't, that's going to be an order block which you can treat as a bearish order block, and that little bounce would provide opportunities for people that are overallocated to potentially de-risk slightly. Now, it's not to say that that's going to happen, right? There is a possibility that you get some sort of a V-shaped recovery. Remember, a lot of the major dips that we have had are followed up very shortly after by the Trump family coming out and saying, "Today's a great day to buy the dip." Maybe we get one of those tweets, maybe one of those messagings come out, and you start to V-shape out of here for the stock market. But at the end of the day, big pullback. The stock market did run actually into our exact target. Look at that, literally on the nose. That was 6,084. That was one of our target levels that we outlined, suggesting that off of the lows historically, some of the biggest moves that we tend to see are a 40% rally, and then you tend to put in more than a 5% pullback. In this environment, we had not put in more than a 5% pullback before hitting that 50% level, and that is where the pullback took place. It was also the exact measured move, look at that, of the rectangle breakout. You can see over there the rectangle breakout taking you exactly to that target zone. I'll show you that again: the rectangle breakout for the stock market, hitting the target over there, and now putting in a bit of a pullback. So, where are we at? Is the cycle over? What should you do next? I know that there's going to be a lot of people that are underwater, but thankfully most of the viewers that have been following for quite some time seem to be okay because, of course, we did mention as well: risk off still for a while. And if you look over here, how far are you down on your crypto holdings? You can see that 43% of them are not bad, right? 43% of you guys voted zero; you're not down at all to 25%. Then we have the rest: 23% at 25% to 50% drawdown. I think for anyone that's holding spot, this is probably where the majority are; they're probably between this 25% and 50%. And then we have a select few, which is about 34% of you, that are down more than 50%. So, we'll talk to those particular viewers. I'll show you what you can do today. Stay until the very end. And then also for those of you that are not really down at all, we'll also give a little bit of a plan for you and suggest how you can capitalize on this to possibly make really quick returns. Quick returns and risky returns are two words that should be used synonymously, right? It's still going to be a dangerous environment. There's probably going to be a bit of a ranging market. We'll talk about all of that. Daily exchange volume has still been grinding towards the upside. You'll remember if you've been watching the videos all of last week, one of the biggest warning signs that we said, which was conflicting data, which said: remain relatively cautious, was the ETF inflows. Go back to any of the previous videos that we covered over the course of this week. Those net inflows were at record highs, and anytime that we see this, we know that we're very close to a local top, or we're going to ultimately put in a major pullback. And that is what happened. This is one of the things that I wanted to stay cautious on: those massive record levels on the ETF flows for BTC. ETH not record flows but still relatively high. We'll talk about ETH as well today. I think that may be one of the better opportunity coins. And there's your heat maps, right? Heat maps absolutely wrecked across the board. That is both the stock market and crypto over there. I wanted to mention as well the whale trader, right? There was a whale trade over here on Hyperliquid that had over a $3 billion short position, and he just stubbornly would not close that thing. So, did he know something that the rest didn't? Well, at the end of the day, he's closed the majority of that short trade. So, we'll see what that means for price. Let's get into the price charts over here. This is generally just speaking about your weekly trend. Long story short, as long as you're above the yellow line and it's angled towards the upside, generally speaking, the market tends to trend higher and it's bullish. If you do start to lose that and you break below that, it becomes bearish. And more specifically, the 50 EMA, which is going to be the red one, has had better interactions with price, holding price, which means if you lose that 50, it really is over. So, we'll need to zoom in on this chart. Let's do that. We'll zoom in over here. We saw that Bitcoin was pretty much rangebound. Now, we need to assess how the weekly close looks. The weekly close is going to be vitally telling in terms of what's going to come next. Now, if the weekly close closes anywhere below last week's candle, this is an incredibly bearish sign, and it genuinely could mean it's the end of the cycle. And the reason for that is because anytime in Technical Analysis, which, believe it or not, is not a vastly used trading technique across the world (there's probably only about 30% of the world that use Technical Analysis), in technicals when you put in an all-time high and that's followed by a bearish engulfing candle (which means this red candle closes below last week's candle), this would be incredibly, incredibly bearish, which means that the next, call it, 48 hours into the Monday close is going to be incredibly important in terms of dictating what comes next. Now, that's the first important piece of information for those of you that are out there. Why is it important? It's important because some of you are still 100% in cash, and you may be thinking, should you ape into a trade? Well, you have an invalidation. You could be using this weekly wick low as an invalidation. If you were aping into a trade now, buying into positions, you could have a tight stop loss underneath here. You have about 24 to 48 hours to confirm that weekly close. If that weekly close is below this green candle over here, which means below, and I'll give you the exact level so that we're not making anything up. Let's actually mark it off on the chart so you guys at home can literally just copy that level. So that's the level. We'll make it nice and tight over here. We'll drop it onto one point. And you can see it's written in the right-hand margin. The level that you want to see this weekly candle close above is $111,597. If you close below $111,597, you drastically increase the probability that this is a major top, and you're going much lower, and you could possibly take out some of these lows. So that's the first piece of information on the high time frame. If however, Bitcoin closes higher and rallies over the next 24 to 48 hours, closing, leaving a bit of a wick behind, there is a hopium case. The hopium is that you're still above the 21 EMA, the yellow moving average over there, and that is still angled towards the upside. Again, closing as a bearish engulfing candle at an all-time high, I want to reiterate, is an incredibly bearish thing. That will also turn that EMA towards the downside. Then you need to look next at where we are within the timing cycle. You guys have known that I've been speaking about this for months, if not years. The timing factor that we're looking at was the 1,068-day mark, right? 1,068 days. That is pretty much what 1,067 days is today, which equals the exact timing top that you saw for the 2017 cycle, marked off in orange. 2021 cycle over here you can see topped in 1,059 days into the cycle, which already makes this cycle currently equal in length to the longest cycle that we had, which was 2017. So, timing-wise, we've got to that point in time where we're pretty close to the end. Also, with that being said, what we have seen historically is once Bitcoin did put in its top, sometimes in the following weeks, you got face-melting altcoin seasons. Altcoin season is a swear word amongst most of us over here, but that is the environment that you tend to see massive parabolic runs, the final suck and draw of liquidity. Could this be the flush out that leads to that? We'll look at that when we get to the altcoin section. We're going to spend a bit of time going through that in today's session. Now, in terms of the timing, the timing suggests that we're right at the end of the cycle. That's what it suggests, right? Just using historical data, if you subscribe to the four-year cycle theory. Many talk about lengthening cycles, right? Translated cycles. Many call for super cycles and say that this time is different. If you're in that camp, there is evidence to suggest that, well, in certain regards, for example, if you look at short-term bubble risks and all sorts of other kinds of metrics on chain, what you'd be seeing over here is that we're relatively low on the risk scale. We haven't actually hit any of those prior peaks in terms of hitting the orange to red line areas, which is above 1.75 on the bubble risk indicator. This can go across the board. Looking at things like the PI cycle top indicator, all these different types of things, we're relatively muted, we're relatively tame. We're in what you would call like the ordinary business as usual environment. If you want to use this on your Bitcoin sentiment tracker, you're kind of in that equilibrium zone in terms of all other risk factors. So that's why you don't want to write the cycle off just yet. You don't want to write off just yet. It is a possibility that it extends just a little bit further. Also, with that being said, when we scroll through and we go onto the daily time frame, you can see that Bitcoin has tagged exactly into the zone that I highlighted as a must-buy opportunity. Now, unfortunately, I wasn't awake when all of this happened. It was probably about 3:00 a.m. my time, and anyways, a lot of the exchanges, you couldn't log on, but you tested exactly into that 200 MA/EMA support level over there, hitting it perfectly on the nose and bouncing off of that level. Now these are still angled towards the upside, which does also provide a little bit of hopium. Also, in terms of your overall structure on a closing candle basis, you have this low, you have this higher low, and if we close here or higher, you do still have the potential to print yet another higher low. So, that's one thing to consider over there to keep the bullish hopium alive. There will be bounces along the way. Oftentimes, you'll revert close to the order block of where the breakdown occurred. It may take a couple of weeks, but that would mean even if you chop and range about over here, in a few weeks' time, you should see price trading back towards about $120,000, and then you'll get a bearish retest with the opportunity to potentially exit. So, that is the week, that is the daily time frame. We've covered the weekly, we've covered the daily. We'll have a look at a whole bunch of different altcoins over there. If you want to have another viewpoint on the daily, this is still a rectangle at all-time highs. So, you can see the previous all-time highs over here. This is a rectangle, a critical area. You traded above the value area high in terms of the volume profile of that range. You ran it all the way back down to the bottom side over there. And the rectangle breakout, if it does actually trade back above $123,000 in the future, well, that will open up the trade still to $138,000. Now, that all is going to depend on what this weekly close looks like. So again, I think that the real message for Bitcoin that I want to leave you with today is that you want to see this candle close slightly higher. You don't want to have a bearish engulfing candle. If you have a bearish engulfing candle, most of this goes out the window, and there's a possibility that you'll start to break down below the 20 or the 200 MA and EMA, which is the blue and light blue moving average over there. That consequently would break you back below here, which becomes very bearish because if you do break back below the value area low, which is your orange line, there you go, the orange line of this volume area, this is a significant zone that's coming in at a price point of $108,000. That will start to look like major distribution. All righty. So, it's going to be very critical to defend this level, very, very, very critical. The closes are going to be vitally important. More on that as the market digests the move. We'll cover that later on in the week. Make sure that you do come through each and every single day. Make sure that you watch the videos all the time because, of course, the markets are constantly moving. We're constantly provided with new information. So, we saw USDT dominance as well. You got a much bigger spike up. Now, we're looking at a bearish fair value gap over there that absolutely melted through, and now you're seeing it close back above this level. This is what we spoke about as well. Yesterday we said that this will start to usher in a whole lot of trouble if you do start to close multiple candles above here on the USDT dominance because if I bring my other chart across on the screen over here, you're talking about possibly a much bigger bounce. So, in order to get bullish market structure, you must see a rejection from here on the USDT dominance. You must see acceleration towards the downside like that. Altseason only occurs if you break below 3.63%. And I have to zoom out to remind you that every single major local top has been marked by the dotted or dashed vertical line running down the screen, which is where the USDT dominance bounced ultimately off of this trend line. Every local top or even cycle top occurred off of a bounce off that region, right? So, that's why we've been studying the USDT dominance on the lower time frames. Now you have a massive wick over here. What you're looking for is probably a little bit of a range to develop. The range needs to develop. I'm going to highlight the areas over here for you. We'll change the colors so you don't get confused. Let's grab our box over here. What you need to see is probably a range develop over here, and we'll make it in yellow for the USDT dominance, and then that needs to begin to distribute. So, that's what that's going to be your best-case scenario for a bullish price move. If however you consolidate over here and you don't start to distribute, that will start to look like a bull flag that would lead to another higher price. At that point, you can say that that's a massive bull trap that occurred down here. A lot of people got long into that bull trap expecting a much bigger breakdown, which did not come, and now they're wrecked. All righty. Now also, on a serious note, I know there will be a few people; there's always a few people that went all in. Always, guys, for those of you that did go all in, if you've been incredibly hurt in this sell-off, the only piece of advice that I have for you is, you know, many hardships lead to bigger comebacks at a later stage. The best thing you can do right now is do nothing. Revenge trading or trying to revenge trade your way back into the market right now to make it all back in one trade is a terrible idea because you won't be thinking straight. You'll be thinking incredibly emotionally, right? If you're in spot, pretty much just sit on your hands. Don't do a single thing. If you're in leverage, you've probably already been liquidated. I can't think that there's many leverage traders that survived. I saw on Twitter and the timeline a lot of people out there, tens of millions, right? Big traders, hundreds of millions of dollars wiped out of their personal accounts. Imagine being worth $100 million yesterday, and today your net worth is zero. All righty. Bad, bad, bad, bad stuff. So, be very, very, very careful out there. Do not try and revenge trade. Understand that life is a journey. Life is a journey. You have ups and downs. This is what your life essentially looks like. You have these bad moments, then you have ups, then you have downs. And yes, sometimes you have big downs like maybe some of you now. You can recover. You can get your life back up over here, consolidate, and ultimately start to mark back up. Then generally speaking, your life trend is up and to the right, and you have more good days than bad days. So, if this is you, don't give up. Don't give up. Don't give up. And I know it's not all of you, but there are some people that are out there. Again, even big traders, hundreds of millions of dollars completely wiped. And I think this is a good message from Mattie Sim: this is what I always preach: 95% spot is key. And if you come to Whales School, I discuss this stuff at length, right? For those of you that have been to Whales School, you know that we talk about the various different pie charts, right? And it depends on your net worth how you're going to play that pie chart in the sense that, you know, we always say that you'll have minimal allocated into leverage, right? Around 10% for leverage, and the rest of this is all spot. This is all spot over here. Spot, spot, spot, spot, spot. And then for those of you that have been to Whales School, you'll know that I say that well, if your net worth or your portfolio size is over $100,000 or a million, you can start to drop that leverage size down to only around 1%, or if you're over a million dollars, even 0.1% of your account can be traded on leverage. Leverage kills, right? Leverage can kill. So, be very, very, very careful out there. Spot traders, for example, some coins, guys, went down 99%. Effectively, that means if they had a million dollars, they basically went to zero, but because they were on spot, they survived. They woke up today, and now they're only down, let's say, 40% to 50%, which still gives hope of recovery. So, vitally important to position size, risk management. Risk management is the most important thing; it's the first and most fundamental thing that I teach when guys come to Whales School. Remember, it's a free course if any of you do want to do that. That is why it's free, to try and educate people and help them along the way. So, let's continue. Bitcoin dominance, however, has hit our key level. And this is the crazy thing that could be also a bit of hopium. I have two points of hopium for you today, and they both stem around ETH/BTC and Bitcoin dominance. So, BTC dominance tagged the level much quicker than I thought it would. The level that we're looking at is a potential rejection from 61.61%, which is your 50% level marked off in purple, and your 62.95% level, which is your golden pocket. You can see you've hit that level; you've rejected off that level. The close is going to be important. If you start to see in the next couple of days the close look like this, you know, closing over there, and then slowly this just starts to break down. The only way Bitcoin dominance comes down is in a rallying market. It's very rare, right? If the market is crashing, which is for an example what happened yesterday, Bitcoin dominance spikes. So, a crashing dumping market or at least in Bitcoin dominance crashing and dumping to the downside oftentimes means that the USD pairs are rallying aggressively, and there is greed entering into the market, and things get exciting. Okay. So, this is your bullish hopium case. Your bullish hopium case is Bitcoin dominance has tagged the level that we intended that we waited for over here, and we're expecting a rollover effect. Okay. So, if you get that rollover effect, theoretically ETH/BTC needs to have hit the level that we had been eyeing out, which I dropped over here in Whale Room, and I've covered it on the show as well. Where's ETH/BTC now? ETH/BTC tagged the level, and ETH/BTC is getting a reaction out of the zone. So, this is the area of interest. We told you all week: we said 0.05 to 0.0382. That is the ratio, that is the area of interest right now. You can see bullish demand coming in. People stepping into the ETH trade over there. You know, I have more that I want to say about ETH. Look, I'm obviously somebody as well that has the ability to buy the dip over here, and I think to myself, what is going to be the best positioning to get into? And to me, ETH is one of the safest players firstly, and obviously for the reason that ETH/BTC has come down into the territory where you'd expect the higher low to form. That's the first thing. So, it's telling us: if you are going to be placing your chips somewhere, you want to outperform Bitcoin. That's the first and most important thing. Otherwise, you're taking on more risk than you need to. The second thing is that I think to myself, a lot of retail are going to be absolutely rinsed over here. Let's just be honest, guys. I know most of you on the channel seem okay, which I'm very proud about. Well done. Congratulations. I'm super, super happy that the whale community are rock solid over here and have done very, very well. But what worries me is about the 99% of the rest of the market. They have been wrecked. We already know that we've had a lack of retail interest relative to what the price cycles have looked like. We can study and see this by looking at the price of Bitcoin over time relative to the YouTube views. Now, what you've seen is in the prior rally peaks, the YouTube views reached around 4 million views per day. Where are the YouTube views now? They're under 1 million. Despite the fact that Bitcoin reached the levels that it's reached, the YouTube views across all the crypto channels, the most viewed crypto channels, is less than a million views per day, very, very, very small numbers, which shows a lack of interest from retail, which means that the few retail that were here got absolutely rinsed. Which brings me back to the point of why I'd be interested in ETH probably over the rest is because there is some level of institutional bid, right? We know that there is some level of institutional bid. BlackRock is still buying ETH. They are essentially raising capital from retail. Their instrument that they're selling in terms of their ETH ETF is still being sold to retail. But these are more traditional retail people, people that buy things like the S&P 500, NASDAQ, gold, 401ks, and they're saying, "Hey, you know what? Allocate a small percentage of your funds into BTC and ETH in terms of our spot." Their financial advisers are on the phone, calling all their clients, which means that there's still an opportunity for this to go up. But it makes me wonder, what about the rest of the coins? We can go through the list. We can look at their measured against BTC, and it's not a pretty picture. It's definitely not a pretty picture. So, I worry that most of the altcoins are not going to be able to catch the, call it, retail altcoin bid that we've come to know and love from 2017 and 2021. I'm not sure you're going to see it. There will be a select few that will get it, but I think that if you want the odds in your favor, you have to go for the things that the institutions could at least bid up because that's why Bitcoin has done so well: because of that institutional bid. So, let's have a look. We'll go through a couple of these things. SOL/BTC drew this months ago, months ago, when it was down here rallying up into the trend line. The rejection... I don't know how it's going to make it down to this. I still don't know if it's even going to make it down there, but strong rejection. When you're looking at Solana measured against BTC, the support level that you want to look out for is that 50% level. You can see you have now tagged the golden pocket, which means if this, as a ratio, can start to close back above that purple line, that's probably going to suggest that, you know, maybe not actually going to come down to this level. Maybe Solana will catch a bit of a bid. We know there's institutional interest in this as well. But ETH, SOL, any of the narratives that come, Hyperliquid, Lido, Raydium, any of the things that Pepecoin, WIF, BONK... Do you know what I mean? The bounces become less and less as the money flows from the first mover to the second mover to the third mover, which again just supports why I'm suggesting that I think Ethereum is still probably one of the better bets. SUI against BTC tagged the bottom of the range low. SUI was literally unbelievable. If I have to show you the USD pair, firstly, ETH came into our level. This was previously drawn out. We said you might get an opportunity to pick it up over here as well. But anyway, let's go through to SUI, guys. SUI literally went down to 54. That is, and we're not even going to measure from the all-time high. Let's talk about one daily sell-off of 83.89%. Can somebody please call Raoul Pal? Look, I think he's okay because he trades spot; he actually has risk management. So, I'm sure that he's probably fine. But this is the state of the market: big, big, big, big sell-offs over here. Huge inefficiencies, massive wicks. One thing I can teach you and tell you right now about inefficiencies, and if you want to learn more, just join Whales School. But one thing I can tell you is when you see a big wick like this or big inefficiency, oftentimes price will come back and revisit that 50% level, which is why you don't necessarily want to be too quick to ape into positions. You kind of want the dust to settle. Of course, a risky person will ape in over here for the V-shaped recovery, and they might get it. Look, if I was awake and I was on an exchange, I would have just blindly bought all the way down here and just set a grid order, no problem. But the reality is that the pump has already happened over here. So, there's a possibility that you revert and range back down to about 1.57 when you see these big wicks. I think at minimum, at least you can look at something like that to back towards about $2, which means you can get mega wrecked if you're trying to ape into positions, especially on leverage, which is why I say don't do the revenge trading. Back to $2 is still another 25% drop, and we saw a big drop in the S&P 500. So, it's going to be interesting to see what happens next week. But we need to watch that volatility. Smart traders will map out a trading range right now on a low time frame, and then they'll look for opportunities. That's what they're going to do. All righty. That's what they're going to do, and you can make a lot of money in that environment. So, let's continue with the list over here. Hyperliquid massive flush against BTC as well. We'll reevaluate this in terms of closing candles. What you can always do is just move onto a line chart if you want to eliminate some of the noise. I guess there is a chance of hopium if Hyperliquid starts to bounce from you and you put in a higher low in terms of the closing candles against BTC. Not that bad. There's a difference between looking at things on BTC pairs versus the USD pairs, which may have broken down some of those structures. So, we'll have a look at that as well, in a moment. Litecoin/BTC just price discovery to the downside. New lows. XRP/BTC failed, rallied straight through this. It's lost a lot of key levels. That's not looking good. Chainlink/BTC completely smacked. Injective/BTC all the way back at range lows. Swept through. Maybe you can consider this a swing failure pattern. But again, where is that retail money going to come from to get these things going? There is always a possibility that some sort of buyback program comes into play from the Fed, which brings massive liquidity. It's always possible, but I'm not really going to be playing that guessing game of, you know, are we going to try front-run that potential decision? We don't know if it's going to come. Okay. AVAX/BTC smacked as well. Cardano/BTC completely smacked, getting a big wick up, closing nicely over there. So, a lot to look at. What we need to do is we really need to look at the indexes, the so-called indexes, which is going to be Total 1, 2, 3, and others. See where that's at. See where that's closing, and then we can start to move into the actual altcoins. All righty. Votes over here. If you haven't already voted, vote over here. How far down are you on your crypto holdings? Again, this is a decent story. It means that most of you are okay. Do you guys remember when last week or this week, actually, it was either this week or the end of last week, I asked specifically the question: what is your current allocation into the market? And basically, it was about 90% of you were more than 80% allocated, and I said, "What could go wrong? What could possibly go wrong?" Pay attention to these polls. I do these things strategically, but vote honestly on them. Don't try and manipulate the data because this is useful for us. Just be honest when you vote on these polls. Also, for those of you that want to get into Whale Room, I see in the comment section you're asking right now, or Whales School, how do you get into Whales School, which is totally free? This is how you do it, right? You have to first sign up to Blofin. This is just to prove that you're a human because there's a lot of free things that you get when you finish Whales School. Free things that you get: you get a two-week free trial in Whale Room, which is the private Discord. The second thing that you get for free is if you complete the course, you get a $15,000 Bitfunded account, which is amazing for a lot of you that have now lost money and you want the free trial or opportunity to make it all back. So, sign up to Blofin, right? Once you've signed up to Blofin, then you're going to come through down to "start trading smarter" and you're going to click on that Whales School link. It's going to open up over here like this. So, to unlock your full access, you're going to utilize your Blofin user ID, which you'll find on the top. So you sign up to Blofin, no KYC over there. Click that. Copy it. Come through over here. I know there's a lot of new people, so I'm just showing you step by step. Click "unlock access." Okay, "unlock access." Once you've done that, it says over here, you're actually going to be brought through to this page over here that says "sign up." You don't need to do that. If you scroll down, you'll see it says, "I already used a link before," which you've just done, right? So, you click that unlock. Click "unlock access." Drop down to Blofin. Very dead simple and easy. Paste in your user ID and submit it. And that's it. Make sure you've deposited $100 so that we can verify you're real and you're not just farming all the free opportunities. And then that's it, you're in. We start on Monday. On Monday, the aim is going to be to teach you high-level risk management trading strategies that get you in and out the market very quickly so that you can make a whole lot of money without taking on too much risk of being a hodler, right? We don't want to be hodlers in this market. Okay, so let's get into the altcoins. Let's go straight into the altcoin mix. I'm literally just going to start from the top of the list, and we're going to work our way down. As easy as that. If that's fair enough, let me know in the comments. Say "fair enough," and we'll get started. So, first and foremost, we're going to just go high time frame. We begin on the weeklies because we want to see where the general structure of the market is. We'll start over here with ETH/BTC. You know the weekly story: you're coming into major demand over there. But if you get a bearish engulfing candle, terrible, not good. Okay, ETH. There's your weekly scale. There is your weekly scale. All that we can do in this environment is map out the next major level of support, just in case. And the next major level of support, we're going to go from the range high down to the range low, and you're going to map out that 50% level, which is coming into $3,100. Now, I'm not saying that is going to happen. I'm just telling you if the market continues its bearish trajectory, that is going to be the support zone. That probably first has a bounce set in a lower high, and then only would you come to that level. But if you drop onto the daily for ETH, also this could theoretically be a great buy zone. All right, this could theoretically be a great buy zone because in terms of structure, you do have something to work with over here. Let's just quickly see the percentage drawdown that you'd be looking at. So, I mean, that's a 10% move. Of course, use risk management. You don't go all in on that trade. I have the best position size calculator in the whole of crypto over here on the Whale Trades website. The link's in the description. It's free for you guys to use. So, calculate your risk before entering into any of these trades. I'm going to wait a little bit for things to settle because I'm more interested in the weekly close for Bitcoin. That's the most important thing for me. But, you know, let's assume the weekly wasn't looking so terrible for Bitcoin. What I would be saying over here is that I'd be looking for a close above this orange line because you have a low time frame trading range that's formed: previous resistance, support, runs up, comes down. If you close above here, you could theoretically consider that a swing failure pattern, and that opens up the trade opportunity at least into this breakdown area. If you reject from that breakdown area, then you're coming down to the 50% level. Okay? Which basically means in a nutshell what I'm saying over here is that opens up a short-term trade opportunity, short-term trade opportunity to the long side. Highly skilled traders should be the only ones that are playing with these things because most other people that don't understand these terminologies and techniques are ultimately going to get wrecked. I would like to believe that this will be a major low for Ethereum, especially based on this chart, which I think is incredibly telling. This is an incredibly telling chart over here for ETH/BTC. The bounce off of there would have to mean that the USD pair is also going to bounce and outperform Bitcoin. And if you start to, you know, imagine in a couple of weeks, the dust settles and ETH/USD is trading back up here. Remember, this still becomes a target: almost $8,000. That's a big move. I think this is one of the better risk-to-reward bets: ETH/USD. That's the trade that I'm personally eyeing out. Okay, let's have a look. XRP. XRP got absolutely rinsed. A lot of people got liquidated over there. Theoretically, you're closing back into this fair value gap over here. Look, to get into a position of strength, I'll probably be looking at the total range of this chart over here. I'd want to see XRP getting back above $2.63. $2.63. Solana, I've said all week—not even all week, like all three weeks probably—that I don't really like the way this price action was forming. It looks like it could be a complacency bounce. The problem is that you just have this massive amount of liquidity over here, right? This is all pent-up liquidity, which if you start to sweep it, you know, you could drop very, very, very quickly. So, I would rather let the dust settle. But at the end of the day, Solana has hit the next level that we outlined. So, the next level, it should line up more or less with the mid-range. Let's quickly map it out. There you go, more or less with the mid-range. Look at that, actually, perfectly with the mid-range. And you can see all these previous support/resistance areas. So, if we just quickly map this out: resistance, resistance, resistance, support, support, support, resistance. What if that's support? If that is support, at least a trade back up to $220, similar to ETH for a dead cat bounce, a relief rally, if you will, and then you can reassess, consolidate at that range quarterly, and then you can open up the trade for higher. So, theoretically, Solana is in a buy the dip zone, theoretically. I know that sounds insane to say something like this. Just be careful. If the trade wars and tariff story picks up, it's always risky, but sometimes the best trades are risky. Okay, I don't like that SUI's broken below this trend line. In fact, you now have a daily candle close below that trend line. I did speak about this a whole lot. I said despite the fact that you're coming into a fair value gap, personally, I maintain a very cautious stance on this because you're putting in lower highs and you're rejecting off the 50% level. That was a very wise call from myself because I was in quite a sizable SUI trade, and I would have been crying today. Thank god I'm not. Big move towards the downside. Now you need to be careful of underside resistance. That's it on SUI. You need to be careful of underside resistance. Any rally that fails at $3 over here will likely lead to another leg down. All righty. Let me check your guys' comments over here. Lord Pinus, excuse me. He says, "Stop buying altcoins. Buy stocks or Bitcoin." I mean, this is wise words. I think we discussed this yesterday. For those of you that watched to the end of the video yesterday, I pulled up the stocks. I said, "Just have a look at this. Why do we do this to ourselves? This was before the dump. Why do we punish ourselves like this with certain altcoins?" And it's absolutely the truth, right? You need to stick with things that look very strong. That's it. You need to stick with things that look strong, and we've tried to stay very clear of things that are weak. All righty, let's move through the list. Okay. SEI also multiple tests. This is the problem with multiple tests into a support level over here. Even starts over there: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Boom. Six just runs straight through. Now, the problem is that the structure is damaged. For a lot of coins, the structure is damaged of the chart. Let's go back onto SEI because this was previous support, runs up, support, runs up, resistance, comes down, resistance, support, support, support. Failed. Okay? Which means if SEI rallies up over here and fails, that's not going to be good. So, the truth be told, your safest trade opportunity—there's a difference between trying to pick the bottom and buy low and entering into a safe trade that gives you confirmation that things are going to be going higher—the safe confirmation trade basically means you need to pretend that none of this ever happened and wait for price to ultimately recover the breakdown level. This is going to be the same across the board. The breakdown level, which is essentially Thursday the 9th candle, basically look at those three candles: Wednesday the 8th, Thursday the 9th, and the top of Friday the 10th candle. If you get back above there, pretend nothing ever happened. It was just another day in crypto. We look back in the chart in a few years' time, and it was just an absolute nothing burger, and things look okay. That's what you would need to see. If you do get back above those levels, it's all back on. Anything that is below there is risky. It doesn't mean you can't make money for the bounce. We've spoken about that. Even just looking at this, the relief rally on something like SEI back to that level is going to give you 25%. Without even touching leverage, just a spot trade, 25%. Cardano. Okay. Also rinsed. We spoke about it. Lower highs, lower highs. I said at minimum, I think you're going to sweep this 50% level. Of course, this thing rallied right through. At least on Cardano, it's holding this trend line over here on a closing basis, but you need a bit more bullish price action to establish. We have AVAX, which I also explicitly said yesterday and the days before that this looks like a complacency bounce and it's going to run straight through that level. Of course, I couldn't have said it's going down to 7.50 or whatever it was, but I was targeting this level over here, which is where price currently is at: $22. I said $22. It's at $22 right now. You're going to break this trend line. You need to range a bit. Develop some strength. That's exactly what happened. Sonic. Previously Fantom, relabeled as Sonic. These guys are not having a good time. Sonic, unbelievable. Yesterday, 30 cents. Today, half of that. This thing dropped to 7.9 cents. Call it 8 cents. We'll be generous. Round it up. Call it 8 cents. So, yeah, look, Sonic has a strong fundamental case as a very, very, very fast blockchain. We'll see what happens if it can recover certain things. But I think that at minimum, minimum, minimum, right? Firstly, you need to actually recover 26 cents. But I would give the benefit of the doubt and say, you know, if you can even just start to get back above here, maybe you can talk about like a little bit of a deviation. That's a new range low that forms. You're looking at something like this. So, there's structural damage over here on a lot of these charts. You need to see something like this. This is going to take time because there have been periods in history where you V-shape out like that. But this only this kind of a V-shape, like COVID lows, getting out of those COVID lows, it only comes off of the back of massive Fed intervention money printing on steroids. Okay. And I don't have any insider info. I don't have Jerome Powell on speed dial, unfortunately. If any of you do, you can let me know. Okay, so let's continue. Kaspa actually putting in an 11% bounce. Not bad. That was the level. It's tagged. Remember, we had been looking at it all week, months actually. I said I wouldn't touch this until such time as it hit $0.05. You've hit it. You've now officially hit $0.05. That's the level you've tagged it. Let a little bit of a range develop. Again, a sign of strength if you can get back above the breakdown level. Okay, when's the Fed's next meeting? Well, maybe they're going to have an emergency meeting if the stock market starts absolutely nuking, but we can have a look over here. Let's just see on the economic calendar if anything interesting is coming up. This is a question from the chat. So, we are... Okay, we need to go to next week. Let's just go to next week's data. Anything interesting next week? That is for Australia. That's for UK. Fed Chair Powell speaks on Tuesday the 14th. Tuesday the 14th is the next speech coming from Powell. So, let's go back on our chart and let's map that off. Tuesday the 14th. Okay. So, it's very soon, early next week. Early next week. All righty. Okay, guys, let's continue. Tron still our local top is being confirmed over there. It's still holding on. XPLA hit the lower target. I actually did a whole newsletter on this yesterday, and I said that, you know, traders should either wait for 49 to 67 cents to be tagged or wait for a reclaim of 88, and we smashed through the target at 49 cents. I was originally targeting a 70% drop, which was to that level, which is where price currently is at. Now it's 85% down. Okay, so we've come down quite significantly over there. Same story: you need to now wait for reclaims of high levels. It's too dangerous to buy the dips on these kind of things. So, if you want access to those newsletters, which was released yesterday, also that is free. It's in the description. Let's just see over here if we have it. Do we have it today? We might have run out of space. It's okay if we ran out of space. All you have to do is click over here on the Whale Trades site where all your data is free. Go over here and then just subscribe. Click that button over there and you can subscribe. Okay, let's move on. Pump.fun. I was targeting the pink box. We went through that. Of course, everything would have overshot slightly. So, now we need to clean this chart up a bit. Okay, we got the breakdown. We warned of that. We said, "Looks a bit heavy over here. Be very careful." I'm going to clean this all up a little bit. Let's map things out. I'm not going to go from that ultimate low. We'll go from here. Really, to get into a position of strength, same as a lot of the other coins, you must recover yesterday's candle, which gets you back above the 50% level. Is this a bounce area? Well, yes. Theoretically, this is absolutely major support. This is all major support. We don't have massive chart history or price history for Pump.fun because it's relatively new, but this is very important support over here for a potential bounce out of this zone. Okay, ASTAR. Last night when things started to look a little bit sketchy and weak, things were down like five, six percent. ASTAR was actually showing quite a lot of relative strength, but obviously didn't hold up very long. You've now also hit that targeted level. There is clearly some buy pressure that's coming in on ASTAR because this is one of the few coins that didn't dump, you know, 70%, 80%. If we actually just highlight this and we have a look from yesterday's candle, you know, this only dropped—I'm going to say only, but remember a lot of things went down 99%—dropped 40%. I was actually pretty surprised that this didn't make it down into the bottom of the pink box, which from the local top draws you down 70%. Also written in yesterday's article, I speak about that a bit. You know, you're looking at generally speaking, a newly launched coin with hype comes up, sets in the local top, and will typically sell off between 60% and 70%, 70% as the minimum target. That takes you to about 70 cents for ASTAR. But now I'm not sure it's going to get there because if it didn't do that yesterday, why would it do it this time? So, longer term, ASTAR is probably not a bad bet. With that being said, we can go to BNB because remember ASTAR is the perpetual DEX for Binance. So, if Binance does well, BNB should also hold up, and Binance has done very, very, very strong. It's done very well. It's come into the key support over here. I did actually mention if you do start to break down some of those higher lows on the low time frame, this would be the target level. So, quite interesting to see how it actually hit that exact level and bounced over there. The problem is you may still be in an environment where you could set in a lower high. So, could you play the bounces? Yeah, absolutely. But what you need to be careful of now is lower highs anywhere within that block: $1,200 to $1,300. All righty. Let's see. Okay, guys. Let me have a look at some of the others. Aether is holding up. It's doing okay. Managed to close above the major support level over here, which is coming in around that 0.043. Decent. Decent over there. A lot of the meme coins got wrecked. You'll remember we took the massive trade on Useless and I told you, I literally told you yesterday, "Take your profit," all the way back straight through the original entry, actually, heading back into the bottom of the falling wedge. Yeah, it looks bad. It looks bad. This could distribute all the way back down to 13. Let me know in the comments if you took profit. I literally told you just yesterday, "Take profit. Take profit on this particular trade." There's no need to wait for all the way back to 44. You've made massive money on this trade that we took. You had a 118% move, and even yesterday you could have closed it for a 100% move. Okay, let's see any of the other memes looking okay. BONK's putting in a bit of a bounce, 12% up structurally. Where's it at? Is that new lows? No, not new lows. Swept a lot out over there. I would personally be patient. I think that BONK could, off of a bit of volatility—there's going to be wide ranges over here—you could drop down to 992. 992. Okay. I'm just checking the list, guys. If there's anything, I recognize positions that we spoke about. I also told you to take profits on Toshi, which had a lot of relative strength. Flushed all the way down. You know, a lot of relative strength. We took the long trade on that, faded all the way up here to the TP. Yeah, I mean, this is still kind of holding up, still kind of holding up. In terms of the closing candles, we'll mark out some levels over here. So, I mean, if this can hold, you might fluctuate a little bit over here, but if you can pick this up around 6585, highly risky. Toshi is a memecoin, just to be clear, guys. Structurally, as long as you keep closing above like 7,080—are the last four digits—that's kind of important. That's a good sign over there for Toshi. Okay. Zcash, which has had the most relative strength. Unbelievable. Unreal. I mean, I tried a long this yesterday on this little trading competition that we had, and it just wouldn't catch its bid. But, you know, higher time frame, the ideas are still correct. This thing just keeps melting up. Tagged down into the key support just yesterday that we marked out, held it, bounced off aggressively, and it's up basically new yearly highs. Unreal. Unreal. There's always a bull market somewhere. Colleen says Zcash is going to $1K. Okay, Doge. Let's have a look at Doge as well. All righty. Doge. Okay. Broke the trend line straight through all the way back down to range lows. I mean, I don't like it. Doesn't look great. Doesn't look great. This has got a lot of time and effort required to recover some of this. Launchcoin. Let's have a look at that. I mean, it looks okay. You still have a potential bump and run over here. Obviously, the wick down was brutal, but you're holding. You're trying to get back above that 50% level of the trading range, low to high. That's the main trading range that's being developed over here. I'll highlight it for you a little bit clearer. You know, that's your main trading range there, and this is a bit of a range high that's developing. So, you're hanging around that mid-range. Okay, we'll have a look at Illuvium, but I can't think that this looks very good. I can't imagine that there's anything good coming out of Illuvium. Yep. It should have hit zero. It's terrible. There's nothing good to say about Illuvium. Let's just quickly have a moment of silence for Illuvium. Thoughts and prayers with the Illuvium shiller in the chat. SPX6900. Yeah, one of the strongest coins previously. So, let's actually have a look. And yeah, I see in the chat, Bitcoin is holding strong. It is. Giggles as well. I saw Giggles, by the way, guys. I saw Giggles. We'll go to SPX6900. I couldn't believe it. I had to ask the people, "Is this chart for real?" Is the data reporting correctly because Giggles was one of the coins that we, of course, gave in Whale Room, and this thing is absolutely cooking. There's Giggles. I could not believe it. I couldn't believe my eyes. I'm very, very, very surprised. So, massive relative strength over there on Giggles. Anyway, let's go back to SPX6900. See what's going on over here. Yeah, brutal big sell-off. This is a major level of support. The pink zone must hold. You're right around there now. This is theoretically your buy zone if you wanted to accumulate SPX6900. If you think that this is going to flip the stock market, you are delusional, and you need to seek help. But if you think that it could trade back to the highs, yes, this is the range lows. Okay, cool, guys. I mean, we've covered a whole lot over here. We can go through more. I know it's a vitally important time for people. Again, I just want to reiterate, if you are down bad, you can make it all back. Learn to trade a strategy on the low time frames, risk very little money, or get free access to things like Bitfunded accounts over here. It's all linked in the description below if you want to see exactly how these prop firm challenges work. Come to Whales School. You're going to get free access into Bitfunded. We literally hand you a free account worth $15,000. It's first come, first served. You have to be in the first 500 people to join in order to get that. Otherwise, you're going to get a $10K or $5K one depending on when you join. Okay? First come, first served over there. Sign up to Blofin. Do that over there. Join us in Whales School. We'll try and help you the best that we can. Trading is a journey. Also, always remember that, you know, it takes time. It takes time. Also, know that this liquidation event is the most extreme. So, if you've if you were new to crypto, welcome. You're one of us now. You've officially earned your stripes. You've officially been baptized in blood. So, congratulations to you. You're part of the family now, which means you've entered into a new cult, which means you can't leave, right? You have to stay. You are part of the new cult now. The Class of 2025 has been baptized in blood. You are new cult members. Congratulations. All righty, guys. That is it from me. Let's leave it over there. I will see all of you on the next one. I can't wait to join you guys in Whales School on Monday. Make sure that you come. We'll talk about recovery strategies and how you can make it all back strategically, safely, over time. I'll see you all in the next one. Have a good day and cheers for now.

Beginner's Guide to Cryptocurrencies